WTPN21 PGTW 130330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.7N 136.9E TO 13.9N 133.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 130300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.8N 136.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.5N 145.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 136.8E, APPROXIMATELY 110 NM 
NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A MOSTLY OBSCURED, ELONGATED AND RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON 
THE WESTERN FLANK. A 130006Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS THE ELONGATED 
CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 25 KT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND 
POCKETS OF 20KT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE 
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). 
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 97W TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AS IT RAPIDLY 
CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THE GFS, ECMWF AND NAVGEM ALL 
SHOW THE SYSTEM QUICKLY DISSIPATING WITHIN 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE MODELS 
SHOW A WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THEN TURNING NORTHEASTWARD 
AFTER 48 HOURS WHILE QUICKLY WEAKENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB.THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
140330Z.//
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