WTPN21 PGTW 200200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 150 NM RADIUS OF 24.5N 138.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 200000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 138.4E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 24.1N 138.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 138.4E, APPROXIMATELY 
160 NM WEST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 192151Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION 
OFFSET TO THE EAST OF A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 
INVEST 97W IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, ONLY OFFSET BY MODERATE-HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INVEST 97W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK 
ERRATICALLY POLEWARD WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS AS TS 19W MOVES WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
210200Z.
//
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