WTPN21 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
245 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1N 167.9E TO 17.9N 152.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 110000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.2N 168.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.9N 171.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 168.0E, APPROXIMATELY 
272 NM NORTH OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) WITH 
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC PERIPHERY AND 
MAXIMUM WINDS DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER. A PARTIAL 102312Z MHS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO 
A DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, 
92W IS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 92W WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT 
TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST, REACHING BASIN WARNING CRITERIA IN THE NEXT 
12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
120300Z.
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