WDPN31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (MATMO) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 20.8N 110.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 225 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TYPHOON 27W
(MATMO) WITH A WELL-DEFINED, LARGE (45 NM) EYE AND SPIRAL BANDS OF
DEEP CONVECTION ENCIRCLING THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
MAKING LANDFALL WITHIN THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA AND IS EXPECTED TO
EMERGE WITHIN THE NORTHERN GULF OF TONKIN IN THE COMING HOURS. A
050613Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED A SYMMETRIC MICROWAVE
EYE WITH COLD CLOUD TOPS ENTIRELY SURROUNDING THE CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED
RADAR IMAGERY AND THE AMSR2 IMAGE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KTS
IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES
AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 050201Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   DEMS: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 92 KTS AT 050540Z
   CIMSS ADT: 97 KTS AT 050600Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 86 KTS AT 050600Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 92 KTS AT 050540Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 90 KTS AT 050600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
   OTHER FACTORS: LAND INTERACTION WITH SOUTHERN CHINA

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: 27W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD,
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SECOND LANDFALL, JUST EAST OF THE
VIETNAM-CHINA BORDER IS EXPECTED NEAR TAU 12. 27W IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS INCREASING TERRAIN
INTERACTION CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE THE VORTEX. A COMPLETE
DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NO LATER THAN TAU 48, NORTH OF
VIETNAM AND LAOS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A 63 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 36. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WEAKENING
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, SUPPORTING THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
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