WTPN33 PGTW 041500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 041200Z --- NEAR 28.1N 161.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 28.1N 161.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 28.5N 160.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 29.3N 158.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 041500Z POSITION NEAR 28.2N 161.5E. 04AUG25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 588 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED PROXY VISIBLE (PROXYVIS) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPCICTS A COMPACT AND RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCUALTION CENTER (LLCC) COMPLETELY DEVOID OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, SMOTHERED UNDER A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR. A 041024Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS A VERY SMALL CUSP FEATURE, WITH NO CLEAR EARTH-RELATIVE WESTERLIES ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AND A VERY SMALL PATCH OF 25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE GRADIENT ON THE EASTERN FLANK. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE PROXYVIS IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SCATTEROMETER PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDTIONS ARE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW. TD 14W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE SHORT DURATION OF THE FORECAST WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE DIRECTION TD 14W WILL TAKE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH THE GFS AND GEFS SHOWING A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST WHILE THE ECMWF AND ECENS TRACK NORTHWEST. THE JTWC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041200Z IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 10 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (BAILU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // NNNN