WDPN33 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN) 
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 28.0N 163.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 558 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY
EXPOSED, AND RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DEVOID OF
ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE ANIMATED MSI ALSO SHOWS A SECOND,
LARGER CIRCULATION BEGINNING TO FORM ABOUT 300NM SOUTH OF THE LLCC
ASSOCIATED WITH TS 14W AND TROUGHING BETWEEN THE TWO. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, MODEL FIELDS, CIMSS ANALYSIS AND JTWC HAND
ANALYSIS REVEAL AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW POSITIONED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE
AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOTED BELOW AND REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH A 032219Z ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWED A REGION OF 25
KNOT WINDS IN THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE OF THE ROTATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE, CHARACTERIZED MODERATE TO HIGH
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, WEAK TO NON-EXISTENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW,
UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR OVERLAYING THE
SYSTEM.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) NORTH OF
HAWAII.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 26 KTS AT 040540Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 32 KTS AT 040540Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 23 KTS AT 040245Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 22 KTS AT 040610Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK WESTWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ABOVE THE LLCC, UPPER-LEVEL
LOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. 

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST IS TRUNCATED TO 24
HOURS. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W IS POSITIONED
WITHIN AN ELONGATED AREA OF RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE, BETWEEN A
STRONG STR OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA AND A MUCH LARGER STR NORTHWEST
OF HAWAII. THE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE PATTERN SOUTH OF TS 12W, AS WELL AS SOUTHWESTWARD TO A
TRADEWIND TROUGH LOCATED AROUND 18N 158E. THE SECOND CIRCULATION
DISCUSSED ABOVE IS POSITIONED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. DURING THE
SHORT DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE TRACK MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO BE TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE
AT THE MOMENT IS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE ALREADY UNFAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE, AND LIKELY WILL WORSEN AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AT ROUGHLY THE
SAME SPEED, KEEPING THE LLCC UNDER STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND
DRY AIR THE ENTIRE TIME. TD 14W IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BELOW
WARNING THRESHOLD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS ERROR, THERE IS VERY
LIMITED DETERMINISTIC TRACKER GUIDANCE AVAILABLE FOR THIS FORECAST.
HOWEVER, THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AND ANALYSIS OF THE GLOBAL MODEL DATA SUGGESTS
THE PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST
TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
ADJUST SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. SIMILARLY, THERE IS EXTREMELY
LIMITED INTENSITY GUIDANCE, AND THE JTWC FORECAST IS BASED OFF
ANALYSIS OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL FIELDS WHILE REMAINING CONSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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