WDPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 13.4N 170.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 100 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 425 NM SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 38 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TYPHOON 
(TY) 12W EXTREMELY RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING, HAVING NOW DEVELOPED A
PINHOLE EYE MEASURING 8NM IN DIAMETER AND INTENSIFIED 25 KTS IN 6
HOURS. 12W HAS EXPLODED EXTRAORDINARILY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS 
AND CONTINUES TO EXCEED EXPECTATIONS. THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST IS 
UNIFORM AND APPROXIMATELY SYMMETRIC ABOUT THE EYE, DEEP CONVECTION 
CONTINUES TO EXPAND RADIALLY, AND THE SYSTEM LIES DIRECTLY BENEATH A 
POINT SOURCE PROVIDING EXCEPTIONAL DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE SYSTEM 
REMAINS IN A 
PHENOMENAL ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY VERY LOW (0-5 KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS), HIGH (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AMPLE 
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND ROBUST DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PINHOLE EYE 
PRESENT IN ANMIATED EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KTS IS ASSESSED 
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXTREME RAPID INTENSIFICATION 
(EIR) TREND AND THE CIMSS ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. THE AGENCY DVORAK 
FIXES ARE ASSESSED TO BE UNDERESTIMATING INTENSITY DUE TO THE 
EXTREMELY FAST DEVELOPMENT AND COMPACT NATURE OF THE STORM.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: ADJUSTED WIND RADII BASED ON THE 280640Z
SENTINEL-1 SAR DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RCTP: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   PHFO: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 104 KTS AT 281310Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 96 KTS AT 281310Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 106 KTS AT 281116Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 95 KTS AT 281310Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG DUAL-CHANNEL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
TO 165 KTS TO REFLECT THE OCCURRING EIR AND HIGHLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 12W (DOLPHIN) WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE STEERING 
STR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND REORIENT TO THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO 
THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE RIDGE. REGARDING INTENSITY, 12W 
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN EXCEPTIONALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, SUPPORTING UNBRIDLED 
INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DOLPHIN IS CURRENTLY 
FORECAST TO PEAK AT TAU 72 AT 165KTS, THOUGH IT'S POSSIBLE FOR THE 
PEAK INTENSITY TO BE HIGHER. FOLLOWING TAU 72, 12W IS EXPECTED TO 
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY, SEEMINGLY INDUCED BY ITS COLD WAKE WHILE THE 
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HIGHLY FAVORABLE. AS 12W INTENSIFIES, 
THE PROBABILITY OF IT EXPERIENCING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) 
INCREASES PARTICULARLY BEYOND TAU 48 LEADING TO UNPREDICTABLE 
INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS THAT MAY NOT BE REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST. 


MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN STRONG 
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE NEAR-TERM 
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. AFTER TAU 72, A HANDFUL OF OUTLYING MODELS EMERGE 
TO POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF MODELS. THE 
POLEWARD OUTLIERS INCLUDE UKMET AND THE AI EXPERIMENTAL ECMWF 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEAN, WHILE THE EQUATORWARD OUTLIER IS 
EXPERIMENTAL AI GEFS. EXCLUDING THOSE OUTLIERS, THE JTWC TRACK 
FORECAST IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 72-120. RELIABLE 
INTENSITY AIDS CONTINUE TO HAVE A VERY LARGE SPREAD IN BOTH RATE OF 
INTENSIFICATION AND PEAK INTENSITY. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES 
ON THE HIGHER END OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE, AND IN LINE WITH HAFS-A FOR 
THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. FOLLOWING TAU 48, THE JTWC 
INTENSITY FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN COAMPS-TC (GFS BOUNDARY 
CONDITIONS), THE EXPERIMENTAL AI GOOGLE DEEPMIND, AND THE MULTI-MODEL 
CONSENSUS, WHILE HAFS-A CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY THE STORM TO A PEAK OF 
180 KTS. AS A RESULT OF THE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING INTENSIFICATION, 
PEAK INTENSITY, AND THE WEAKENING TREND IN THE LATE-TERM FORECAST, THE
JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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