WDPN32 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO) WARNING 
NR 011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 26.9N 124.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 157 NM WEST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W IS A VERY SMALL NUGGET OF ENHANCED
VORTICITY ENCAPSULATED WITHIN THE FAR NORTHERN END OF A MUCH
LARGER, HIGHLY ELONGATED, NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED, MONSOON GYRE WHICH
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO TS 11W WEST OF LUZON. TS 10W PASSED SOUTHWEST
OF KADENA AROUND 241100Z, THEN OVER KUMEJIMA ISLAND AROUND 241300Z,
THEN RACED OFF TO THE NORTHWEST AT NEAR 20 KNOTS. A 241308Z ASCAT-C
PARTIAL PASS REVEALED THE ELONGATED CENTER FOR THE GYRE EXTENDING
FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST, WHILE THE SMALL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT IS TS 10W IS POSITIONED IN THE FURTHEST REACHES OF THE
GYRE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
VERY SMALL LLCC RAPIDLY MOVING WESTWARD INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
EXPOSED LLCC IN THE EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS
WHICH SHOWED A PATCH OF 35 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CIRCULATION, COMBINED WITH THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
UNFAVORABLE, WITH A RAPIDLY WEAKENING VORTEX, SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR OVERLAYING THE LLCC, DECREASING OUTFLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE
SHEAR.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SYSTEM IS POSITIONED IN THE NORTHERN
END OF A MONSOON GYRE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO TS 11W WEST OF LUZON
AND BEING STEERED ALONG THE GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE GYRE AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER THE YELLOW
SEA. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 38 KTS AT 241736Z
   CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 241730Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 241730Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 29 KTS AT 241808Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 31 KTS AT 241800Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EASTWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MASS OVER TOP OF
THE SYSTEM. 

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 10W HAS MOVED OUT SMARTLY AFTER PASSING
SOUTH OF OKINAWA, ACCELERATING BEYOND WHAT WAS ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER, AS THE VORTEX CONTINUES TO SHALLOW OUT AND OPEN UP, THE
STEERING PRESSURE ON IT WILL RELAX, ALLOWING IT TO SLOW DOWN JUST
AS QUICKLY AS IT SPED UP. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO
GRADUALLY TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH, AS IT STEADILY WEAKENS AND IS
ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER MONSOON GYRE. THE TRACK WILL ALSO BE
INFLUENCED BY A BRIEF BINARY INTERACTION WITH TS 11W, MOVING UP
FROM THE SOUTH, PASSING IN THE VICINITY OF MIYAKOJIMA. NEITHER
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAPTURE THE OTHER, BUT
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTERACTION AS THE TWO SYSTEMS
REACH THEIR CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH AROUND TAU 36. DUE TO THE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, TS 10W IS FORECAST TO
STEADILY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, ULTIMATELY DISSIPATING
OVER WATER NO LATER THAN TAU 36 AND POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS TAU 24.
THE REMNANT VORTEX AND VORTICITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TURNING
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AFTER THE END OF THE FORECAST, AS IT
CONTINUES TO MERGE WITH THE EVOLVING MONSOON GYRE. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE STARTING TO LOSE THE
VORTEX AND THUS THE MODEL TRACKERS ARE RAPIDLY BECOMING
UNREPRESENTATIVE OF THE EXPECTED FORECAST TRACK. THE CURRENT
PACKAGE OF GUIDANCE IS FOR THE MOST PART GOING WITH PERSISTENCE
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND RUNNING THE SYSTEM INLAND OVER
EASTERN CHINA. THE ONLY MODEL THAT SHOWS A TURN SOUTHWARD IS THE
GFS, BUT IT ALSO PULLS THE SYSTEM ON A 180DEG TURN AT TAU 24 WHICH
IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY. THE JTWC FORECAST THUS DEVIATES OUTSIDE OF THE
MODEL ENVELOPE AFTER TAU 12. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS STILL HIGH
GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MODEL TRACKERS ARE LOSING THE VORTEX ITSELF
AND ARE NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ACTUAL STEERING PATTERN.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING
DISSIPATION BETWEEN 24-36 HOURS. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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