WTPS21 PGTW 291500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96P) REISSUED// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281451ZJAN2021// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.4S 173.8E TO 17.2S 177.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 291200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 174.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 171.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 174.3E, APPROXIMATELY 244NM NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 291010Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, WARM (29- 30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96P WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT INTENSIFIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 995 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 301500Z. // NNNN