WTXS21 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160251Z FEB 21//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21.2S 36.6E TO 24.5S 37.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 162345Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 21.7S 37.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 21.9S 36.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.7S 37.1E, APPROXIMATELY 161 
NM NORTHEAST OF MAXIXE, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR), SUPPORTED BY A 162306Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE, DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF UNSTRUCTURED, FLARING DEEP 
CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE NORTHWEST ABOVE A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC), CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD BUT TURNING SHARPLY 
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 93S IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT 
WITH HIGH (25 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND NEAR RADIAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD AS 
IT INTENSIFIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
180300Z.//
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