WTXS21 PGTW 141500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9S 87.7E TO 16.9S 82.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 141200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 87.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 90.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 87.3E, APPROXIMATELY 575 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 141101Z F-15 SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF A TIGHT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE EAST. A 140303Z METOP- A ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD AROUND A TIGHT LLCC WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND 15-20 KTS TO THE NORTH. 93S IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION, POTENTIALLY REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD WITHIN 24 HOURS, BEFORE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE UNDER UNFAVORABLE VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 151500Z.// NNNN