WDXS31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WARNING NR 
026//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.4S 127.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 100 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 209 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 29 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
AS OF 241200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S STALLED, WITH THE CENTER 
LOCATED JUST OFF THE KIMBERLEY COAST. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DETERIORATING SYSTEM, WITH CORE 
CONVECTION DECREASING IN AREAL EXTENT AND THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST 
BECOMING INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
DEFINED EYE, WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING LOCATED PRIMARILY OVER THE 
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOW 
MARGINAL, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY ROBUST 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM IS ENTRAINING DRY AIR WITH 
INCREASED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS, WHICH IS AIDING IN THE RAPID WEAKENING. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KTS IS CONSERVATIVELY ASSESSED WITH 
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW AND ADRM INTENSITY FIXES, WITH 
CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 91 TO 99 KNOTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   ADRM: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 91 KTS AT 241200Z
   CIMSS ADT: 99 KTS AT 241200Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 99 KTS AT 241200Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 92 KTS AT 241023Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 93 KTS AT 241200Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S WILL TRACK SLOWLY
WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12, WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN
GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD WHILE TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STR, WHICH IS FORECAST TO REORIENT NORTH-SOUTH AS A DEEP MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. AFTER LANDFALL,
RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND EXTENSIVE 
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ADVECTING INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
SYSTEM. TC 05S WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND NO LATER THAN TAU 48.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH
AN 60-145NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD FROM TAU 36 TO TAU 48. THE 240600Z
GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLES SHOW THE LARGE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS OVER LAND 
SUPPORTING THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WITH THE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. 
RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES RAPID WEAKENING SUPPORTING THE 
JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
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