WDXS31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 
002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 12.9S 51.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 553 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE 03S WITH A SHALLOW AND FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS BECOME SEPARATED FROM THE CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT AT THIS TIME. A 080227Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING
INTO THE LLCC WITH CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED NATURE
OF THE LLCC IN ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES
AND CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT 03S IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OFFSET BY BORDERLINE (26-27 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF MADAGASCAR

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   FMEE: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 080600Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 42 KTS AT 080600Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 35 KTS AT 080553Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 34 KTS AT 080600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTH

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRUNCATED TO 24
HOURS

FORECAST DISCUSSION: 03S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, PASSING CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN TIP OF
MADAGASCAR. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
UNSUPPORTIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO DRY AIR AND PERSISTENT
SHEAR ACTING ON THE SYSTEM. AS A RESULT, 03S IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN TC-STRENGTH FOR ONLY ANOTHER 12 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING
OVER WATER NORTH OF MADAGASCAR NO LATER THAN TAU 24. IF CONVECTION
IS UNABLE TO FORM NEAR THE CENTER, THEN DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR
EVEN EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS. THE CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD AT TAU 24 IS MEASURED TO BE ABOUT 100 NM BETWEEN THE
NORTHERNMOST GFS AND THE SOUTHERNMOST NAVGEM. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES ON 03S MAINTAINING 35 KTS FOR AT MOST 12
HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING. NOTABLY, THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND AND GFS DEPICT
IMMEDIATE WEAKENING, WHICH, BASED ON THE CURRENT STRUCTURE, IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
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