WTIO21 PGTW 241100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98B)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0N 90.3E TO 14.0N 90.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 240600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.9N 90.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) IS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N
90.3W, APPROXIMATELY 290NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR, INDIA. 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING, 
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP 
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND CONVECTIVE BANDING 
FORMING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. A 240234Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS WINDS OF 
25KTS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (15-20KTS), GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE 
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF FORMATION WITHIN 24 HOURS AND A REVERSAL IN 
STORM MOTION TOWARD THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
251100Z.//
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