WTPN21 PHNC 090730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.1N 112.8W TO 16.6N 119.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 090600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.2N 113.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96E) IS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 
113.0W, APPROXIMATELY 240NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SOCCORRO. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) OBSCURED BY FLARING DEEP CONVECTION DIRECTLY 
ABOVE THE CENTER. A 081716Z BULLSEYE METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALED 
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW 
(10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND-SHEAR, WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER 
THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS, WHILE 96E TRANSITS GENERALLY WESTWARD. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
100730Z.//
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