WTPN21 PHNC 201930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191921ZOCT26//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 191930)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.8N 96.0W TO 9.4N 100.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 201800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.8N 96.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.6N 93.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 96.2W, APPROXIMATELY
401NM SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO QUETZA, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) EMBEDDED WITHIN FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON 
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF 94E AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS GENERALLY WESTWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
211930Z.//
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