WTPN21 PHNC 051900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3N 96.3W TO 15.2N 100.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 051800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.4N 96.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) IS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 
96.4W, APPROXIMATELY 337NM SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO.ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A STEADILY CONSOLIDATING 
AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC ROTATION WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER AND DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE 
CENTER. A 051558Z FURTHER SUPPORTS THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE AREA OF 
CONVECTION (92E) WITH HIGHER WINDS (20-25KTS) ALONG THE NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 92E IS IN OVERALL FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY FAIR DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW 
(05-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92E WILL MOVE 
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
061900Z.
//
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