ABIO10 PGTW 251800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
251800Z-261800ZOCT2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251051ZOCT2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.8N 91.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 90.9E, APPROXIMATELY
272NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR, INDIA. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC), CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING, AND FLARING CONVECTION NEAR 
THE CENTER. A 250746Z GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FORMATION OF A PARTIAL 
INNER CORE WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGHLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), MODERATE TO STRONG POLEWARD AND WESTWARD 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). 
THE RECENT RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OBSERVED IN MSI 
AND OUTPUT FROM GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SUPPORT HIGH 
CONFIDENCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 251100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. 
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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