WTPN21 PGTW 302030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.8N 115.5E TO 7.3N 107.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 301900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.4N 114.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 7.1N 113.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 114.9E, APPROXIMATELY 215 
NM NORTH OF BRUNEI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 
A 301417Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION 
WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE 
CENTER. A 301310Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS THE ELONGATED SHAPE OF THE 
CIRCULATION AND SHOWS PRIMARILY 10-15 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AND 
20-25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY BUT NOT YET WRAPPING IN. THE 
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD POLEWARD 
DIVERGENCE, HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT 
THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TRACKING WEST AFTER A SHORT PERIOD 
OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT AND WILL CONSOLIDATE AS IT PASSES SOUTH 
OF VIETNAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
312030Z.//
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