WTPN21 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.9N 137.6E TO 10.0N 132.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 240600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.3N 136.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 7.1N 137.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.3N 136.9E, APPROXIMATELY 135 
NM EAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 240807Z 
SSMIS F-18 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE BOTH SHOW PERSISTENT DEEP 
CONVECTION OVER A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) 
SLIGHTLY SHEARED TO THE WEST. 96W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
FUTURE DEVELOPMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15 TO 
20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND HIGH (28 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 96W WILL CONTINUE 
TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO INCREASED 
CONVECTION AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
250900Z.//
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