WTPN21 PGTW 191130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 3.5N 158.6E TO 6.1N 151.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 190600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 3.7N 158.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 3.7N 158.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.7N 158.2E, APPROXIMATELY 989 
NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 190827Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT 
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN INCREASINGLY CIRCULAR LLCC FROM 
THE WEST. VWS IS IN THE LOW-MODERATE RANGE (10-20KTS) OVER THE LLCC 
BUT DECREASES TO THE NORTH. UL OUTFLOW IS STILL GENERALLY WESTWARD, 
WITH NO CLEAR MERIDIONAL OUTFLOW PATTERN. SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLY WARM 
(28-30C) IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD REACH TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE ALONG A 
NORTHWESTERN TRACK INTO A REGION OF LOWER VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
201130Z.//
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