WTPN21 PGTW 050330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90W) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040321ZNOV19//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 
040330)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 135 NM RADIUS OF 13.9N 115.5E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 050000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 115.6E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.5N 113.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 115.6E, APPROXIMATELY 
315NM WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A BROAD, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH 
PERSISTENT CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY AND MAXIMUM 
WINDS DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER. DEVELOPMENT IS SUPPORTED BY WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, BUT 
OFFSET BY HIGH LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IN THE 
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT (20-30 KNOTS). THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN 
GLOBAL MODELS THAT 90W WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WHILE 
STRENGTHENING, AND CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 72. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 
PGTW 040330).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
060330Z.
//
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