WTIO22 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 93.2E TO 13.0N 88.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 100000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.0N 92.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 
101.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 93.0E, APPROXIMATELY 750 NM EAST 
OF CHENNAI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT 
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH BROAD 
AREAS OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. A 091926 AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ AND 
36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO SHOW DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC 
ALONG WITH LOWER LEVEL BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM. 90W IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (VWS) OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 
28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT 90W WILL TRACK WEST AND QUICKLY INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
110300Z.//
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