WTPS21 PGTW 170130 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92P)// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160121ZMAR2019// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.5S 147.0E TO 12.0S 143.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 170000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 146.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.3S 149.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 146.7E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY A 162027Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH. A 162311Z OSCAT PASS SHOWS A SWATH OF 30KT WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. 92P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92P WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 160130). 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 180130Z.// NNNN