WTIO21 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140251Z DEC 18//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED (WTIO21 
PGTW 140300)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.3N 85.7E TO 13.3N 81.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 150000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.4N 85.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 
88.2E IS NOW LOCATED 8.4N 85.5E, APPROXIMATELY 346.6 NM EAST 
NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 141959Z AMSR-2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A LARGE, 
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE SHEARED NORTHWEST OF A CONSOLIDATED 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINAL 
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR TC 
DEVELOPMENT AT 27C-28C. ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 
94B WILL REACH 35 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 
TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
160300Z.//
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